The fragile peace holding northern Ethiopia together is cracking under pressure. Federal authorities and Tigray leaders are trading accusations over new military offensives, threatening to undo the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended one of the deadliest civil conflicts of recent decades. If you've been following the Horn of Africa, this escalation feels terrifyingly familiar.
How the Accusations Unfolded
On Wednesday, tensions boiled over when federal officials claimed that forces from the northern Tigray region launched a major offensive against government positions. Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, stated that Tigrayan forces seized federally controlled airports in Tigray and launched all-out attacks in neighbouring Afar and Amhara.
Tigray's leaders quickly fired back with a very different version of events. They insisted their fighters entered a defensive war to counter a fresh wave of aggression from Addis Ababa. According to local reports, the friction follows weeks of escalating drone strikes, including a reported strike in the southern town of Alamata that left over a dozen people dead. Mekelle airport fell under local control, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to the region immediately.
Why the Pretoria Agreement Is Fraying
The underlying truth is that the African Union-brokered peace deal signed in November 2022 was always standing on shaky ground. While it stopped the heavy artillery and mass casualties of the 2020-2022 war—which cost an estimated 600,000 lives—it left critical territorial and political disputes unresolved.
Disputes over western Tigray, the disarmament process, the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced people, and lingering blockades poisoned relations for months. Frustrations mounted until the Tigray People's Liberation Front formed an alliance with other armed groups, signaling a complete breakdown of trust with Prime Minister Abiy's administration.
The Broader Risk to the Horn of Africa
Nobody wants a return to total war, but the risk factors are piling up. Ethiopia isn't just dealing with Tigray. Ongoing insurgencies in Amhara—featuring the Fano militia—and conflicts in Oromia mean the federal military is stretched thin.
Diplomats and analysts are watching nervously. The United States ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin J. Massinga, condemned the renewed fighting as an unwinnable fight, while the African Union called for immediate de-escalation. Yet, statements from foreign capitals rarely stop bullets on the ground.
What Comes Next
The immediate trajectory depends on whether Addis Ababa chooses a massive military response or a calculated containment strategy. Either way, the humanitarian toll from the previous conflict means the civilian population simply cannot absorb another round of devastation. Drought linked to El Niño and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons mean the region is teetering on the edge of a catastrophe.
Watch the logistics hubs and airspace closures closely. They are the early indicators of whether this trade of accusations cools down or burns into a wider regional fire.
Ethiopia faces renewed Tigray tensions
This video provides an overview of the escalating tensions and mutual accusations between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces.
